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(egyen)súlytalanság

(egyen)súlytalanság


The origin of the target numbers of Maastricht criteria

The math and the hidden philosophy of Maastricht criteria system

2019. július 09. - sadani

 

This entry describes the mathematical derivation of the Maastricht criteria (hereinafter: Mc) ratios and it reveals that the initial economic assumptions - which were the basis for the ratio calculations - were completely wrong and uncertain.

In the following only elementary, secondary school level mathematics is used and thus is tractable with an equivalent degree. Alternatively, it can be omitted if one does not desire to follow through the derivations.

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The mathematical derivation of the Mc targets shows that the 3% deficit ratio criterion was based on the following three wrong or insecure assumptions:

  1. GDP grows with a rate of 5% (2% inflation + 3% growth).
  2. Only the 60% public debt / GDP ratio (public debt ratio) is able to ensure economic convergence and price stability in the Member States.
  3. MC focuses solely on the relationship between credit money (with other words, fiat money) creation by public debt and GDP (we will see in this paper later that the amount of fiat money = the amount of debt) and does not take into account the role of the financial intermediary system in creating money (= debt) and supporting the GDP.

Without the above mentioned 3 assumptions, the Maastricht criteria do not make any sense whatsoever. However, these 3 assumptions are wrong and unrealistic.

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